Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
